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GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX-tra Gr€€n
Hello Everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Wednesday the 20th to Thursday the 21st of October 2010.
ALERT!!! A DOLLAR COLLAPSE IS ON HOLD. A REVERSAL TO UPSIDE IS UNDERWAY IN THE USDX. THE LEVEL OF 76.2 WAS TESTED AND REVERSED THROUGH AND ENDED LAST WEEK AT 77.0 TO PRINT A WEEKLY KEY REVERSAL. THE USDX HAS REVERSED THE REVERSAL NOW AT 77. THE ULTIMATE USDX TARGET OF 71 IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SHORTLY AFTER SOME USDX TOPPING IN THE 80 AREA. POSITION YOURSELF ACCORDINGLY.
ANOTHER CHANCE ALERT!!! “Mini-Monster Trade” With the EUR/USD now at 1.400 this trade is CLOSED. If you got stopped out at the lower stop, hopefully you got a few PIPS. With 100+ PIP reversals after reversals a large trading range is looking to be developing and continuation plays are limited. If not out use weakness in the EUR/USD possible to the prior 1.375 HIT retracement as an opportunity to exit with PIPS.
I still expect a Head and Shoulder neckline underside retest but we may have to endure some serious price swings to get there. The daily close-up shows once again how important the 200-day moving average (DMA) is in flagging the next major direction for the dollar as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD. The EUR pairs were expected to be overall weaker than the corresponding correlated GBP pairs however there appears to be rotation of relative strength between the two currencies from day to day.
A choppy decline is expected to continue to the 1.350 area before a longer term advance is expected to resume, possibly to the 1.442, 1.495 and 1.600 areas. The EUR chart seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU shows these areas now on a sell signal. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
The GBP is still in bullish alignment with the 50 and 200-day moving averages as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, and traders should take a wait and see approach although a trading range is expected it could be fast and be ready to jump on either way if it moves.
For the JPY intervention is still in the cards and a daily rising trend-line, be wary of the wash and rinse instead of a fast move in either direction that would normally be expected before the turns. Traders should still use caution should the JPY pairs be traded for the time being as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
On the commodity currency front, the Aussie looked on the verge of collapse but then reversed the reversal and looks like it wants to make a run towards parity with the US dollar and then reversed again and reversed again. No one said this was easy. Rapidly approaching levels last seen prior to the onset of the credit crisis back in 2008, the 0.956 to 0.967 a retracement zone targets are now in play. This is really nothing compared to the bigger picture. The longer rally from 0.877 to 0.991 makes 0.935 a potential downside target once the reversal top is confirmed, although highly unlikely at this point, it is possible. The AUD as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD, has topped.
Most of this week is report data light but gasbag, pontificating Central Banker speaking heavy; so be careful as they speak to move markets prior to the G20 at the end of the week. The reports are:
1. Thurs. Oct. 21, 2010 (3:00 - 4:30am EST) French, German and EU Manufacturing PMI and (4:30am EST) UK Retail Sales.
2. Fri. Oct. 22, 2010 (All day) G20 meetings and (7:00am EST) CAD CPI and Retail Sales.
The swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session is to SELL the EUR/USD @ 1.3965 area with a STOP @ 1.4004 and a TARGET of 1.3887 for 70 PIPS.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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