GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX forX-tra Gr��n
Hi everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the
Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Sunday the
7th to Monday the 8th of March 2010 and the week.
The emphasis will be on the USD and to a lesser extent the EUR. What
was written two weeks ago still applies &some fundamental shifts in
sentiment expected to play out over the next few days if not weeks.
The sentiment on the Euro is nothing short of apocalyptic will all
the bullish dollar players expecting the happy days to continue till
nirvana. Seems everyone forgot the complete bearishness in the dollar
no more than 2-3 months ago when the dollar was expected to be in the
dustbin and aside from precious metals the EU was the only play in
town. It is these extremes in sentiment that we meager souls at
GFXtrading hope to exploit with laser-like precision as half the
battle is recognizing the type of market we are in. Well that shift
is now upon us, if not complete, as several more pieces have come
together to yield some exciting PIPS moving forward. As explained in
the Trading Room, we were waiting to see what fabrication would come
out of the U.S. employment report, and while the headline number was
stronger than expected, the underlying aspects of the report were
quite negative and the dollar was sold. The dollar has been sold
relentlessly from report announcement to current Asian trade. This
has created a bearish candle on the daily USDX chart and a
long-legged doji (indicating indecision...a pre-curser to a reversal)
on the weakly chart which can be seen here&
http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD
. The Euro and British pound also have reversal bars indicating
reversals of extremes in sentiment as seen here&
http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU
and http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP
.
It is our belief that the 2-3 month dollar countertrend rally is
done. Another nail in the coffin of the dollar is last weeks
Commitment of Traders Reports showing extreme positions which are
always a nice confirmation at major turning points. Note that the
commercials (the big boys who somehow always seem to get it right)
are heavily short the USD while the large specs (wrong way Louis)
are still heavily long the USD. This weeks report should further
decreased spec short position while they stubbornly hold on to their
lopsided long position.
Again, from two weeks ago Weekly Outlook& &the dollar...having
completed a classic ABC correction in a long term down trend. As for
the GBP and EUR, I am hesitant to call a bottom here as extremes can
always get more extreme, and in some pairs, one more leg down is not
off the table; and since the bounce that failed last week in dramatic
fashion&Be forewarned, a tradable bounce is near and the set-up for a
mini-monster trade could soon be in place. Well folks...that bounce
is here and expected to continue in the EUR, GBP, CHF and the
commodity pairs, AUD, CAD and to a lesser extent the NZD. The
consolidative phases are being broken to the upside in all dollar
(USD) denominated pairs and also the correlated JPY
http://wwwstockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY
, which now looks to be catching up on the downside following the
USD in a correlated fashion.
This week we will look to HEAVILY trade USD and JPY weakness and
retracements intraday. With several reports to trade around, this
month could give a very profitable final week indeed. Position
squaring looks to be completed and feel that the overall trend of
dollar weakness will be hard to fight. This also gives rise to the
next Monster Trade. In this month, opportunities for more position
trades along with a hopefully a new trend play or two by the end of
the week are forecast to be in order in the Trading Room this week.
The Monster trades. Thats right, those sitting in this trade at
lower prices should be very happy. The AUD/USD trade continued its
breakout last week, and the NZD/USD looks to have bottomed. This
strength must now again be bought on any residual weakness as I no
longer expect a reversal to the downside, but HARD STOPS ARE
REQUIRED, just in case. I continue to recommend scaled in BUYS (0.1
contract at a time) on weakness in the AUD/USD in the 0.8975 to
0.9075 range or better with looser stops than usual, around 0.8850 to
0.8875 (so explains the very small position size), and/or scaled in
BUYS on weakness in the NZD/USD in the 0.6950 to 0.7050 range or
better with looser stops than usual, around 0.6800. Note: the AUD/USD
is the preferred pair with ultimate targets expected to yield 1000 to
1500 PIPS over the next 2-3 months, maybe even sooner. Again, NOTE:
All position trade stops are HARD stops, NOT mental stops. Remember,
hard stops for overnight positions, mental stops for day trades.
Again, to repeat, we feel the next few weeks might see some
continuation trend trades, albeit some choppy ones. We will look to
re-enter these trades and some strength or consolidation breakouts,
so stay tuned for more up-dates. Again, there will be many reports to
move the markets today and this week combined with reaction moves
should mean greater volatility than most are used to in the Trading
Room the past few days. That being said we still will be aware of
spike/gap volatility (chop & slop) and adjust position size
accordingly but will go in with both fists to play any forecast
breakout and/or trend plays.
*The swing trade for todays session is to BUY the EUR/USD an any
retracement to 1.3635 to 1.3645 with a STOP at 1.3619 and a TARGET of
1.3717 for over 80 PIPS.*
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading
Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4
hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they
arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
*Trade with Mr. GREEN for $39$ for 1 week trial.*
*Trades are issued in real time, including exact entries, exits and
detailed explanations. The service costs $99 per month. So go to
GreenForexTrading.com and take advantage of this special offer.*
*Mr. Green*
* *
*Risk Warning!** *Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high
level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past
performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of
leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to
invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your
investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The
possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of
your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money
that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks
associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an
independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. All information
posted on this website is of our opinion and the opinion of our
visitors, and may not reflect current situations and occurrences.
Please, use your own good judgment and seek advice from a qualified
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