Sunday, October 31, 2010

[Mataf.net alerts] Forex / Technical Analysis

 
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Monthly Outlook for November 2010

$ £ € ¥

GreenForexTrading.com

ForeX  forX-tra  Gr€€n

 

Hi everyone,

 

In this e-mail I am going to give you my review for the month past and view on the market for the month of November, the week ahead and today, Monday the 1st of November 2010.

 

The swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session is to SELL the GBP/USD @ 1.608-1.609 area with a STOP @ 1.6117and a TARGET of 1.5976 for 100 PIPS.

 

OCTOBER REVIEW:       October was another month of sustained U.S. Dollar selling in the beginning of the month followed by the expected short-term bottom/bounce accompanied by a cacophony of central banker speak and choppy trade.  In the middle of October some very choppy trade for a little over a week that wrecked havoc with technical traders and many well defined stops.  In retrospect, sometimes if one would knew of such things in advance (although I was suspicious of this and pared down position sizes) it would have been best to just go on vacation.

 

MONTH OF NOVEMBER:          The dollar decline is getting just like the Euro decline earlier in the year.  Time to continue to look in regards to the possible re-emergence of dollar strength as we all know the market has a way of making sure the majority of traders miss major turning points.  However, ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ are relative terms and are meaningless when there is a fundamental driver behind a market’s rise or fall.  In the case of the Dollar, traders and investors world-wide understand that the supply of dollars is going to be increasing at a faster rate than the demand for those dollars. The result is basic economics – a drop in price.  As long as the market is convinced that the Fed is going to be engaging in another round of Quantitative Easing (known as QE-II, i.e, money printing 2), the Dollar is going to fall, not only against the other currencies of the globe, but against the metals, which is why gold and silver prices are rising. The saying is, "If the market doesn't shake you out, it will wear you out" and it seems we are getting both...that being said, there is more at work here than just regular market movements.  With the light volume in the market we know there is price manipulation and QE II due to be formally announced this Wednesday which is helping to boost prices and exaggerate market movements but it could end up to be a “Sell the News” event in which the dollar could be bought.  While a bounce in dollar strength is long overdue ominously, there does not appear to be much if anything standing in the way for the USDX to fall to 75, where if it takes that out as easily as it has previous “floors”; and if it is heading to 72 then we can expect to be heading for a currency crisis.  A bounce is expected to complete though before such a collapse is expected this month. 

          The dollar has room to move higher here, but prices need to follow through higher, and we are just not seeing that yet.  I still expect a Head and Shoulder neckline underside retest in the 79-80 area, which also coincides with key Fibonachii retracement levels and the declining 50-day moving average.  We may have to endure some serious price swings to get there first.  The daily close-up shows once again how important the 200-day moving average (DMA) is in flagging the next major direction for the dollar as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD.  The EUR pairs were expected to be overall weaker than the corresponding correlated GBP pairs however there still appears to be rotation of relative strength between the two currencies from day to day.  Longer term a real collapse is expected, but this first week should confirm a bounce with a continuation into a 2-year cycle low by the end of the month. At the moment as stocks are being bid up as bonds and the Dollar are sold off.  While I expect this to continue longer term we are ripe for a countertrend bounce in bonds and possibly the dollar and will look at retrace levels to scale in positions.       Overall, economic data continues to be abysmal from a strong dollar currency standpoint.

          Despite possible occasional positive reports other fundamental indicators, the overall economic situation in US and corresponding US Fed’s policy will hold the USD under pressure.  At the same time, the EU problems did not disappear and an argument can be made that the EUR is a bit overvalued and think that GBP is more attractive currency. Nevertheless, if negative data continues to come from US, EUR/USD can run further.  I believe that the ECB will continue to try to talk the EUR down in the 1.400 region.

A choppy decline of the EUR/USD was expected to continue to the 1.350 area before a longer term advance is expected to resume however a longer term consolidation looks to be developing.  This consolidation could end possibly by bumping into the rising 50-day moving average before the EUR moves higher, possibly to the 1.442, 1.495 and 1.600 areas.  The EUR chart seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU shows these areas now on a sell signal.  Place your trades accordingly.  All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.

          An ABCD technical pattern is seen in the GBP that seems to temper Sterling's strength.   Recent pound strength has been sort of feeble compared to previous real rallies seen.  Although we have seen cable at 160, we would warn of the key round numbers to 161 being a key trap in which a decline unfolds.  It's been over a month and below you can see why we view the recent strength as simply 400 pip range bound activity.  The GBP is still in bullish alignment with the 50 and 200-day moving averages as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, and traders should take a wait and see approach although a trading range is expected it could be fast and be ready to jump on either way if it moves.

          For the JPY intervention is still in the cards and a daily rising trend-line, be wary of the wash and rinse instead of a fast move in either direction that would normally be expected before the turns but looks to be rolling over longer term.  Traders should continue to use caution should the JPY pairs be traded for the time being as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.

          On the commodity currency front, the Aussie looked on the verge of collapse but then reversed the reversal and looks like it wants to make a run towards parity with the US dollar and then reversed again and reversed again.  No one said this was easy, and the direction changes in this currency show it.  Like the EUR, heavy, choppy consolidation, is highly to continue before the range is broken, most likely to the upside.  The AUD is seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD.

         

WEEK AHEAD:  In addition, more US data, an FOMC statement in the form of how much QE-II and US mid-term elections leave plenty to chose from.  Based on last week’s data, the Fed may not have to print money as aggressively as previously thought or so the logic goes and the Dollar might soon see some initial buying which could feed into some intense short covering...be advised if heavily long in dollar denominated pairs.

          There are many activities and reports that I note this week that will factor in some trading sessions going forward.  This week is data heavy and news heavy so sentiment is key going forward.

 

With US mid-term election results anything goes before Wednesday so caution is advised as results come in.  Most of this week’s key reports are spread throughout the week with a heavy dose on Friday.  They are:

 

1. Mon. Nov. 1, 2010 - (5:30am EST) UK Manufacturing PMI and (10:00am EST) US ISM Manufacturing PMI

2. Tues. Nov. 2, 2010 - (4:15am EST) CHF Retail Sales.

3. Wed. Nov. 3, 2010 - (8:15am EST) UK Services PMI; (8:15am EST) US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; (10:00am EST) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and (2:15pm) US FOMC Statement<<< QE II-lite or heavy?

4. Thurs. Nov. 4, 2010 - (8:00am EST) UK Official Bank Rate; (8:30am EST) US Unemployment Claims and (8:45am EST) EUR Minimum Bid Rate decision.

5. Fri. Nov. 5, 2010 - (5:30am EST) UK PPI; (7:00am) CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate and (8:30am) US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

 

That's it for today.  Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time.  I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.

 

Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!

 

Trade with Mr. GREEN for $49$ for a 1 week trial.  Don’t miss out on more PIPS!!!

 

For those who join with this special, the service costs only $179$/month after the trial expires, unless you cancel the membership.  Trades are issued in real time, including exact entries, exits and detailed explanations.  The service costs $179 per month.  So go to GreenForexTrading.com now and take advantage of this offer.

 

Mr. Green

 

Risk Warning! Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. All information posted on this website is of our opinion and the opinion of our visitors, and may not reflect current situations and occurrences. Please, use your own good judgment and seek advice from a qualified consultant, before believing and accepting and acting upon any information posted here or on this website.



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Friday, October 29, 2010

[Mataf.net alerts] Forex / Technical Analysis

 
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Thursday, October 28, 2010

[Mataf.net alerts] Forex / Technical Analysis

 
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Daily Trade for Oct. 28-29, 2010

$ £ € ¥

GreenForexTrading.com

ForeX-tra Gr€€n

 

Hello Everyone,

 

          In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, Thursday the 28th to Friday the 29th of October 2010.

 

The swing trade for yesterday’s Asian-London-U.S. session to BUY the EUR/USD @ 1.3805 and a TARGET of 1.3900 gave 90 PIPS depending on how the trade was managed.

 

ALERT!!!  THE USDX HAS REVERSED THE REVERSAL NOW AT 77.  THE ULTIMATE USDX TARGET OF 71 IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SHORTLY AFTER SOME USDX TOPPING IN THE 80 AREA.  POSITION YOURSELF ACCORDINGLY.

 

Note: Another full blown crisis is brewing in the revealing fraud that is the US mortgage market and should crush the US banking system.  Yes, it is expected to become very serious and should provide the catalyst for the expected dollar decline into December, for now the lamestream media is ignoring it, but here it is…   http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/mulligan-mortgagesthe-banks-only-way.html

 

          The dollar has room to move higher here, but prices need to follow through higher, and we are just not seeing that yet.  I still expect a Head and Shoulder neckline underside retest in the 79-80 area, which also coincides with key Fibonachii retracement levels and the declining 50-day moving average.  We may have to endure some serious price swings to get there first.  The daily close-up shows once again how important the 200-day moving average (DMA) is in flagging the next major direction for the dollar as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD.  The EUR pairs were expected to be overall weaker than the corresponding correlated GBP pairs however there appears to be rotation of relative strength between the two currencies from day to day. 

          A choppy decline is expected to continue to the 1.350 area before a longer term advance is expected to resume, possibly to the 1.442, 1.495 and 1.600 areas.  The EUR chart seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU shows these areas now on a sell signal.  Place your trades accordingly.  All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.

          The GBP is still in bullish alignment with the 50 and 200-day moving averages as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, and traders should take a wait and see approach although a trading range is expected it could be fast and be ready to jump on either way if it moves.

          For the JPY intervention is still in the cards and a daily rising trend-line, be wary of the wash and rinse instead of a fast move in either direction that would normally be expected before the turns but looks to be rolling over longer term.  Traders should still use caution should the JPY pairs be traded for the time being as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.

          On the commodity currency front, the Aussie looked on the verge of collapse but then reversed the reversal and looks like it wants to make a run towards parity with the US dollar and then reversed again and reversed again. No one said this was easy.  The longer rally from 0.877 to 0.991 makes 0.935 a potential downside target once the reversal top is confirmed, although due to consolidation, is highly unlikely at this point, it is possible.  The AUD as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD, has topped.

 

The last report data this week is: the CAD and US GDP due Friday Oct. 29, 2010 (8:30am EST) and could set the tone for next week aside from the US FOMC QE II announcement.

 

The swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session is to SELL the GBP/USD @ 1.5960 with a STOP @ 1.5990 and a TARGET of 1.5887 for 70 PIPS.

 

That's it for today.  Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time.  I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.

   

Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!

 

Trade with Mr. GREEN for $49$ for a 1 week trial.  Don’t miss out on more PIPS!!!

 

For those who join with this special, the service costs only $179$/month after the trial expires, unless you cancel the membership.  Trades are issued in real time, including exact entries, exits and detailed explanations.  So go to GreenForexTrading.com now and take advantage of this offer.

 

Mr. Green

 

Risk Warning! Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. All information posted on this website is of our opinion and the opinion of our visitors, and may not reflect current situations and occurrences. Please, use your own good judgment and seek advice from a qualified consultant, before believing and accepting and acting upon any information posted here or on this website.



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