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GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX-tra Gr€€n
Hello Everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Monday the 25th to Tuesday the 26th of October 2010.
ALERT!!! THE USDX HAS REVERSED THE REVERSAL NOW AT 77. THE ULTIMATE USDX TARGET OF 71 IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SHORTLY AFTER SOME USDX TOPPING IN THE 80 AREA. POSITION YOURSELF ACCORDINGLY.
Note: Another full blown crisis is brewing in the revealing fraud that is the US mortgage market and should crush US banking system. Yes, it is expected to become very serious and should provide the catalyst for the expected dollar decline into December, for now the lamestream media is ignoring it, but here it is… http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/mulligan-mortgagesthe-banks-only-way.html
The dollar has room to move higher here, but prices need to follow through higher, and we are just not seeing that yet. I still expect a Head and Shoulder neckline underside retest in the 79-80 area, which also coincides with key Fibonachii retracement levels and the declining 50-day moving average. We may have to endure some serious price swings to get there first. The daily close-up shows once again how important the 200-day moving average (DMA) is in flagging the next major direction for the dollar as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD. The EUR pairs were expected to be overall weaker than the corresponding correlated GBP pairs however there appears to be rotation of relative strength between the two currencies from day to day.
A choppy decline is expected to continue to the 1.350 area before a longer term advance is expected to resume, possibly to the 1.442, 1.495 and 1.600 areas. The EUR chart seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU shows these areas now on a sell signal. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
The GBP is still in bullish alignment with the 50 and 200-day moving averages as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, and traders should take a wait and see approach although a trading range is expected it could be fast and be ready to jump on either way if it moves.
For the JPY intervention is still in the cards and a daily rising trend-line, be wary of the wash and rinse instead of a fast move in either direction that would normally be expected before the turns but looks to be rolling over longer term. Traders should still use caution should the JPY pairs be traded for the time being as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
On the commodity currency front, the Aussie looked on the verge of collapse but then reversed the reversal and looks like it wants to make a run towards parity with the US dollar and then reversed again and reversed again. No one said this was easy. Rapidly approaching levels last seen prior to the onset of the credit crisis back in 2008, the 0.956 to 0.967 a retracement zone targets are now in play. This is really nothing compared to the bigger picture. The longer rally from 0.877 to 0.991 makes 0.935 a potential downside target once the reversal top is confirmed, although highly unlikely at this point, it is possible. The AUD as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD, has topped.
This week report data is like last week, data light but gasbag, pontificating Central Banker speaking heavy; so be careful as they speak to move markets prior and during pronouncements. The reports are:
1. Tues. Oct. 26, 2010 (4:30am EST) UK Preliminary GDP Retail Sales & (1-5:00pm EST) German, CAD and US Central Bank Gasbag pontifications.
2. Wed. Oct. 27, 2010 (8:30am EST) US Core Durable Goods Orders & (4-5:00pm EST) NZD Official Cash Rate with RBNZ Rate Statement, and more CAD and US Central Bank Gasbag speaking.
3. Thurs. Oct. 28, 2010 (2:00am EST) UK HPI & (2-5:00am EST) BOJ and ECB Central Bank Gasbag pontifications & (8:30am EST) US Unemployment Claims (Note: last one before election so it could be a mover).
4. Fri. Oct. 29, 2010 (8:30am EST) CAD and US GDP.
The is swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session is to BUY the EUR/USD @ 1.3930 with a STOP @ 1.3905 and a TARGET of 1.4000 for 60 PIPS. Note: the market still is not respecting key levels due to Central Bank machinations...so I suggest you keep position sizes light if you must trade.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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Mr. Green
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