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GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX forX-tra Gr€€n
Hi everyone,
In this e-mail I am going to give you my review for the month past and view on the market for Monday the 13th of to Tuesday the 14th of December.
ALERT: NOW ON A CONTINUATION DOLLAR SELL-OFF ALERT after a small expected retrace.
The swing trade for yesterday’s Asian-London-U.S. session did not retrace deep enough to fill but was modified in the Live Forex Trading Room for PIPS.
The USDX after carving out a very choppy wedge tanked as expected. From yesterday,”The period of serious chop with the USDX oscillating between 79.9 and 80.3 for most of the Asian-London-U.S. Sessions the last three days looks to conclude with a look to the downside. The normally strong U.S. sentiment and employment numbers gave a brief bounce of strength in the US Dollar that quickly faded. This is a bearish sign for the U.S. Dollar but we must still be wary of further “Wash and Rinse” choppiness. Overall, this should still lend strength to all U.S. dollar denominated pairs if this is the real move that I have been expecting.” The continuation is down with some expected retracement that we can load up on more Dollar denominated BUYS. The daily close-up shows once again how important the 200-day moving average (DMA) is in flagging the next major direction for the dollar as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD. The EUR pairs were expected to be overall weaker than the corresponding correlated GBP pairs however there still appears to be rotation of relative strength between the two currencies from day to day. Overall, economic data continues to be abysmal from a strong dollar currency standpoint but given EUR problems of late, it is a case of pick your poison.
For the EUR/USD back to the 1.340 level has occurred and the market has since backed away albeit a small amount. Holding above the 1.330 – 1.334 area leaves possible retests of 1.370 open over the short term. This decline could just as easily retest here at the 200-day moving average as the EUR moves higher to test the underside of the 50-day moving average at 1.37 now that another pullback to 1.32 area has happened. The key 1.442, 1.495 and 1.600 areas are expected to be seen longer term (should Ireland, Portugal and Spain hold it together). The EUR chart seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU, shows that these areas are now on a sell signal but is close to new PPO daily BUY signal after 38.2% retrace level has been tested. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
Recent sterling strength has given way to weakness on Dollar strength. The GBP is still in bullish alignment with the 200-day moving average and a bounce has started and a PPO daily BUY signal is expected soon as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, and traders should be ready to jump on if it moves.
For the JPY intervention look to have been put on the back-burner as recent Dollar strength has mitigated the need for such action and any trades taken on the JPY would be as a buyer so as not to inadvertently fight the Bank of Japan. Be wary of the wash and rinse instead of a fast move in either direction that would normally be expected before the turns but looks to be rolling over longer term. Traders should continue to use caution should the JPY pairs be traded for the time being as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
On the commodity currency front, the Aussie looked on the verge of collapse but then reversed the reversal and looked like it wanted to make a head and shoulder top on the daily but was invalid ... this is the currency to watch. Like the EUR, heavy, choppy consolidation, could be over as the range is broken, most likely to the upside. The AUD is seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD.
This week is filled with an even mix of data reports and policy/rate decisions. They are:
1. Tues. Dec. 14, 2010 - (4:30am EST) UK CPI; (8:30am EST) US PPI and Retail Sales and (2:15pm EST) US Fed Funds Rate Decision and Statement .
2. Weds. Dec. 15, 2010 - (4:30am EST) UK Claimant Count Change and (8:30am EST) US CPI.
3. Thurs. Dec. 16, 2010 - (3:30am EST) CHF SNB Libor Rate(3:00 - 4:00am EST) EU Manufacturing PMI Reports, UK MPC Speaks; (4:30am EST) UK Retail Sales; (8:30am EST) US Unemployment Claims; and (10:00am EST) US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
4. Fri. Dec. 17, 2010 - (4:00am EST) EU German Ifo Business Climate.
The swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session to BUY the EUR/USD in the 1.3330 area with a STOP @ 1.3295 for TARGET’s of 1.3441 and 1.3635 over the next week for 110 to 335 PIPS!!!
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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Mr. Green
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