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GreenForexTrading.com
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Hi everyone,
SORRY FOR THE INCONVENIENCE but I have decided rather than fight the summer doldrums that a holiday break is in order as well as a chance to upgrade this site and so we will be CLOSED FOR JULY AND AUGUST and SUBSCRIPTIONS WILL NOT BE ADDED AT THIS TIME. Should market conditions change as I will still be keeping one eye on the markets, you can keep up with some positional trades from our free Weekly Outlook and Daily Trades Newsletters. Again, I apologize for any inconvenience this might cause, but the wait should soon be worth it.
Mr. Green
In this e-mail I am going to give you my view on the markets for Monday the 20th to Tuesday the 21st of June 2011 and the week.
WEEK AHEAD: This week we expect more chop amid thin volume.the US Dollar will strengthen and then weaken as looking on to the long-term USD Index chart, we see that the index price levels recently moved below the 2009 lows and then reversed direction. It is possible that we could see a choppy bottom/consolidation here at 74-75 as there is a support line here created by the 2009 November low. The markets are digesting news that we won’t see QE3 soon and that the supply of the US Dollars will be at least somewhat limited....(with heavy laughter) On the other hand problems within the EU make many market participants believe that EU will monetize its debt either directly or indirectly (just like, without calling it such, QE3 really will not be called QE3, it will be called something else, if anything just to hide it). This makes for a short-term bullish picture for the USD Index (recall that the EUR/USD pair is the most important part of the USDX Note that the news initially caused a move back to the U.S. Dollar however, and is now trading above the 50 day moving average but still in the key pivot resistance in the 75-76 area before going back down to 73, a level which is extremely, and I do mean, 'extremely' critical from a technical support level. This week will offer more Central Bank speak/pontificating that all is well but that more accommodation is needed in the months ahead. The Dollar now at 74.9 with the possibility of more U.S. Dollar chop given the weakness of last week’s data against more concerns about the EU and the summer doldrums are upon us. Expect some wild moves.
The USDX has become bullish at least for the short term and the EUR Index conversely appears to be in an analogous period of decline. These changes reflect the fundamental news of no QE3 that some market participants were counting on. Expect more U.S. Dollar printing to continue after QE2 is set to end in June and continue under a new QE3. Finally, in the broader context, the monthly chart shows that the rising trend line that is now broken and a falling trendline broken on the weekly charts and so a somewhat mixed picture mid- term. The USDX is now under a Weekly PPO BUY signal with a fresh Daily PPO BUY set-up and we are currently flat as I believe these signals are somewhat late in forming, as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD.
The EUR/USD consolidation between the 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages and we are neutral as the 1.472 level is just as likely as the 1.375 area at this time. The EUR is the inverse of the USDX and with the backdrop of a PPO on a daily SELL signal attempting to turn into a BUY against a Weekly PPO SELL, resistance at 1.472 and 1.50 as seen in the chart here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
In the GBP/USD a trading range as a PPO Daily SELL signal against the backdrop of a Weekly PPO SELL signal right at support at 160 to 161 as LONGER TERM THIS CHART IS NO LONGER BULLISH (and would be confirmed if the 200-day M.A. gives way below 159). Cable is neutral at this point in time as the summer doldrums start, as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP.
The JPY was overbought as USD/JPY and a pullback has occurred as expected from these extreme levels to create another run in the opposite for another set of extreme levels which will be defended at all costs with newly printed yen from the BOJ and so a nimble sell (BUY for USD/JPY in the 80.0 area) as can be played as a return trade to near/between the 50 and 200 day moving averages to go long (short USD/JPY @ 82) is expected for the time being as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
The AUD is another Daily PPO SELL that looks to be possibly turning into a BUY the same as the Weekly PPO SELL, and no breakdown is expected here but is really expected to consolidate here before the next move higher after the 1.075 is cleared and more consolidation before it moves to possible 1.13 - 1.15 on a safe-haven/interest rate differential bid as a long entry as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD.
These weeks tradeable/impacting events are report light and policy events heavy and lighten-up should you trade these with loss stops recommended. They are:
1. Mon. June 20, 2011 - ECOFIN Meetings All Day.
2. Tues. June 21, 2011 - (4:30am EST) GBP UK Public Sector Borrowing; (5:00am EST) EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment; (5:00am EST) CAD Retail Sales and (10:00am) EST US Existing Home Sales.
3. Wed. June 22, 2011 - (4:30am EST) GBP MPC Meeting Minutes and (12:30pm EST) US FOMC Rate Decision and Statement.
4. Thurs. June 23, 2011 - (3:00am - 4:00am EST) EU French, German and EU Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI Reports and (8:30am EST) US Unemployment Claims.
5. Fri. June 24, 2011 - (4:00am EST) EUR German Ifo Business Climate; (5:30am EST) GBP BOE Gov. King Speaks and (8;30am EST) US Core Durable Goods Orders.
Banks facilitate the majority of foreign exchange volume. When they go on Holiday or are closed the market is less liquid and this can lead to both abnormally low and abnormally high volatility and chop...so...There is no swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session due to US Bank Holiday.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
Mr. Green
Risk Warning! Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. All information posted on this website is of our opinion and the opinion of our visitors, and may not reflect current situations and occurrences. Please, use your own good judgment and seek advice from a qualified consultant, before believing and accepting and acting upon any information posted here or on this website.
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