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GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX-tra Gr€€n
Hello Everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Monday the 14th to Tuesday the 15th of June 2010.
There was no swing trade for yesterday’s Asian-London session.
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We are still in a surprise news events environment and being on the right side of a trade is as important as ever as well as to avoid the chop, i.e., trades that can be account killers. That same shift in investor psychology continued to take pressure off of the Euro and encouraged more selling in the US Dollar yesterday. Now it looks like the EUR is toast again with items like these news events unfolding: #1 - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/14/angela-merkel-germany-coalition-collapse , #2 - http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE65D0GJ20100614 , and #3 -
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/100614/2/2dmfb.html. This encouraged USD buying in the late US and early Asian sessions today.
So what now? Now we will refer to the technical outlook. Last week the USD had a weekly breakout daily closing high at 88.3 and it looks like the breakout failed with the expected pullback to the breakout point of 87.4 being undercut to last Friday’s close of 87.33 and further collapsing as low as 86.2. The potential game changer, the USD breaking the 87.4 support level as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here at http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD, indicates that another advance is no longer predicted IF we get a weekly close below 87.0 (with the USD currently in the 86.6 range, this is looking likely for this week, although more news events can change that) as this would qualify as a drop back in the range (aka, failed breakout) and the rising lower bottoms trendline would be violated; and since wedges tend to be terminal patterns longer term, the reversal would be expected to stick. Caution is still warranted until the drop back into range is confirmed by the weekly close. Either way, volatility gets another boost.
The action in the USD can also be confirmed as bottoming action as seen in the EUR chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. The 1.217 level was exceeded but still looks to offer some resistance in the short term Despite the news, the bias is still long after an expected pullback given recent weakness creating EUR sentiment that is still so bearish. The PPO gave a buy signal after showing divergence on the daily against a lower low in the EUR. We will play both ways with a bias now to buy anticipating trades back up into prior ranges. Place your bets accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
The JPY continued its roll over at its current stall and stop at the 200-day moving average after it bounced hard at the lower 50-day moving average and is now in the middle of a rather large range between these two averages, as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY. The GBP as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, looked to have a solid bottom in place with the creation of a higher high above the 147.2 level (a key level discussed earlier which was exceeded and confirms) and is still showing greater relative strength as compared to the EUR and looks to grind higher in the short term. The GBP will be used as the primary proxy for any buys that may be seen near term.
The key report of significance to trade through today will be the UK CPI. Now with the picture clearer still in terms of the USD and EUR related pairs, we will play some retracements and better continuations. Either way, we are making pips.
The is no swing trade for today’s Asian-London session is to BUY the GBP/USD @ 1.473 - 1.474 area with a STOP @ 1.4714 and a TARGET of 1.4822 for 90 PIPS.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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