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GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX-tra Gr€€n
Hello Everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Sunday the 20th to Monday the 21st of June 2010 and the week.
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The “demand for risk” is still encouraging traders to reverse the so-called flight to safety positions in the U.S. Dollar. The USD’s weekly closed under our key pivot of 87.0 and is now near the bottom of the range near 85.0, as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD. Another advance above 87.0 is no longer predicted but a break below is expected only with a chop in this range for some time, and a retrace is expected after which a resumption of the new USD downtrend would be expected to commence. Extreme caution is warranted in this range as a breakdown could occur on such persistent weakness and would be very hard to play until the chop drops and allows a low risk entry, perhaps at the top of the range at 87.0. Either way, volatility gets another boost and we should start thinking about initiating core positions on any USD strength to play its eventual weakness.
In terms of technical considerations in the EUR/USD, two potentially bullish scenarios are taking place. From a weekly long term standpoint, the main trend is down, but the currency was able to pierce through a retracement zone at 1.2164 and now above 1.233. This move most likely took out stops on the way up, including ours. The main intermediate term trend is now up and a move to and through the 1.245 – 1.246 pivot area is expected. The question is whether or not a significant retrace occurs before then. The U.S. data was abysmal from a strong currency standpoint. The prior EUR/USD 1.1876 – 1.232 range now support and a break back to 1.217 is now discounted, although a retrace of some significance is expected. The continuation of a 2 - 3 week rally with the 1.278 region the next potential upside target area. In summary, the weekly chart is set up for a strong retracement rally to 1.2784, provided that the Euro holds a test of a minor interim retracement levels. The topping action in the USD can also be confirmed against the bottoming action in the EUR as mirror images of each other and the EUR chart can be seen here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. We will play both ways with a long bias; anticipating trades back to defined retracement levels. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
The JPY broke above the 200-day moving average; after bouncing hard at the lower 50-day moving average and look to continue a short term uptrend maybe giving a clue to the USD expected retracement, as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY. The GBP as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, also looks to have stalled at its 50-day MA which also coincides with the 50% retracement of the prior April-May decline; so a pullback or consolidation at the minimum is expected here for a while at these levels. A solid break above 148.1 would set up the GBP for a quick pop to the 149.5 level.
There are no reports of significance to trade through today. Now with the picture hazy in terms of the USDX and EUR related pairs, we will cautiously play some retracements and continuations.
There is no swing trade for today’s Asian-London session.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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Risk Warning! Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. All information posted on this website is of our opinion and the opinion of our visitors, and may not reflect current situations and occurrences. Please, use your own good judgment and seek advice from a qualified consultant, before believing and accepting and acting upon any information posted here or on this website.
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