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GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX-tra Gr€€n
Hello Everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Wednesday the 1st to Thursday the 2nd of September 2010.
We are no longer looking for short term continuation buying in the USD into the 84-85 area with today’s failure the 83.4 area looks to have stopped the USDX advance. We will now look to scale in positions for more USDX weakness on any residual bounces or strength. The start of another leg-up in the USD looks truncated The USDX looks to be rolling over from the 83.4 area. This can be seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD. Place your trades accordingly, but scalps are possible here until the market will show its hand. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
The advancing action in the USD can also be confirmed against the declining action in the EUR as mirror images of each other and the EUR, after breaking through and retesting the 50-day moving average looks poised to start another leg down, the 126 area was briefly tested and while shallow, was not brief. The EUR chart can be seen here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. It is interesting to note on a relative strength basis that the EUR advance has occurred mostly on a decline of the dollar as a weighting of currencies is examined and can be shown by comparing the fact that the EUR did not reach its 200-day M.A. before reversing while the USD had tested its 200-day moving average. The same can be said for the 50-day M.A. tests. This expressed weakness in the EUR will be the basis for another “Monster Trade” initiation in the future.
The JPY broke above the 200-day moving average; after bouncing hard at the lower 50-day moving average and went ballistic for a while being the anti-dollar and briefly poked into what now looks like a spike blow-off top and subsequent reversal and is now resting on the lower rising trend-line (not shown here). While a long bias exists as the 50-day/200-day M.A. are now aligned and are now confirming an uptrend, a break of the daily rising trend-line could lead to a fast down move. Traders should be willing to look at both sides of this currency as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
The GBP is still hanging on a cliff, as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, and looks to have found support at the confluence of the 50 and 200-day Moving Averages, and would be expected to bounce here.
There are some reports that I note this week that could factor in some trading sessions going forward. They are:
1. Thurs. Sept. 2, 2010 (3:15am EST) CHF Retail Sales and (7:45am EST) EU Interest Rate Decision.
2. Fri. Sept. 3, 2010 (4:30am EST) UK Services PMI and (8:30am) US Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment Rate.
Traders should be aware of key daily and weekly retracement levels, especially given the thin summer trade
The “Monster Trade” initiation. Waiting for the USD to top out as we will gauge sentiment as the USD flirts with recent retrace and key levels so look for this in upcoming newsletters of what we will scale into. Live Trading Room members will get first crack at these entries with more precise defined levels to minimize risk.
The swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session is to BUY the GBP/USD @ 1.5412 with a STOP @ 1.5384 and a TARGET of 1.5577 for 160 PIPS. Note: We are still in a thin summer trading environment, so best keep position sizes light and allow for chop for any trades taken.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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