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Hello Everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Sunday the 12th to Monday the 13th of September 2010 and the week.
The risk aversion trade was the call for last week, as most traders back from vacations have been buying the dollar. Arguably, weak data from the U.S. was being met, perversely it would seem, with initial USDX buying and shallow declines. We've ended another trading week with traders desperately look for direction. With Commodity Currencies such as AUD, NZD, and CAD gaining against USD on the back of favorable fundamental data, European currencies traded weaker against USD on concerns over sovereign debt and slowdown over global economic recovery. Looking ahead this week, we'll have several important data out of US, UK, and NZ. The current market is still highly uncertain; therefore it's probably best to still keep it light. Hopefully the market will become clearer this week.
We should focus on the Retail Sales out of the US because it probably is the focus of the week as this event could change the short-term trend of the market for USD. With the USD’s closed under our key pivot of 83.4 and is now at 82.3 it seems tightly bound between 82-83 with 83.4 just as possible as 81.5 next again, as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD. The U.S. data continues to be abysmal from a strong currency standpoint, but it is no reason to buy the farm. The Euro held a test of a minor interim retracement levels so far. The EUR pairs are expected to be overall weaker than the corresponding correlated GBP pairs. The topping action in the USD can also be confirmed against the bottoming action in the EUR as mirror images of each other and the EUR chart can be seen here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. In summary, the weekly chart is set up for a strong retracement to 1.300 with 1.330 expected but wait for confirmation of a bottom. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
For the JPY while a long bias exists as the 50-day/200-day M.A. are now aligned and are now confirming an uptrend that now looks to be weakening, and a break of the daily rising trend-line could lead to a fast down move; buy with all reversals be wary of the wash and rinse that could come before the turn. Traders should be willing to look at both sides of this currency as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
In the GBP/USD, we saw a nice support level being formed at the 1.5300 level, which means it may make sense to look long at this level. The GBP as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, is still hanged up near the 50 and 200-day moving averages and will take a wait and see approach although a bounce is expected it could be fast and be ready to jump on if it moves.
There are some reports that I note this week that could factor in some trading sessions going forward. They are:
1. Tues. Sept. 14, 2010 (4:30am EST) UK CPI and (8:30am EST) US Core Retail Sales.
2. Wed. Sept. 15, 2010 (4:30am EST) NZ Official Cash Rate Decision.
3. Thurs. Sept. 16, 2010 (4:30am EST) UK Retail Sales.
4. Fri. Sept. 17, 2010 (8:30am EST) US Core CPI.
The swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session is to BUY the GBP/USD @ 1.5392 with a STOP @ 1.5361 with TARGETS of 1.5470 for 70 PIPS.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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