$ £ € ¥
GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX-tra Gr€€n
Hello Everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Wednesday the 10th to Thursday the 11th of November 2010.
The Dollar is reaping the rewards of the crisis involving Ireland’s debt. That has brought some rather intense selling into the Euro but once the Dollar pushed towards the chart resistance levels near 78.50 on the USDX, it could not hold its gains. For the USDX another day another reversal with chop makes us wary and for now will sit with a short bias on all Dollar denominated pairs. A trade to the 79 to 80 area in the USDX (after a small pullback) coinciding with the 50-day Moving Average is expected with the daily close-up shows once again how important the 200-day moving average (DMA) is in flagging the next major direction for the dollar as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD.
At the moment as the Dollar is bid higher in the short term, further downside follow through in the long bond after it breached an important chart support level in yesterday’s trading session is a warning. The lack of additional buying in the bonds even in the face of a weaker equity market is ominous. It seems to me that this market, which had been supported only by the Fed’s QE (money printing) buys is now discounting those buys and has shifted its focus to the sheer volume of supply which is hitting the market. In other words, bond traders are discounting the price of bonds to reflect the fact that demand is not going to keep up with supply at current levels of interest rates. Bond traders are in effect signaling a return to inflation on the long end of the curve as the effect of the QE impacts the economy at large. So far the decline has been rather orderly so we are not looking at a rout or a sharp spike in long term rates, but it could very well be that the days of low long term interest rates are behind us and more US Dollar selling in the future.
The euro may have reached a point where buyers have become less interested. Recent concerns about Irish debt may also give currency traders a reason to cut back their exposure to the euro. Since the euro makes up roughly 60% of the U.S. Dollar Index, a drop in the euro would help propel the dollar higher. The desire to sell the euro was not atypical from a volume perspective on Tuesday, which tells us not to assume anything in terms of a reversal. A decline in the EUR over the next few days on strong volume would add credence to the trendline trade. A choppy decline of the EUR/USD continues over and a PPO buy signal triggered and failed. The EUR is now expected to move lower before the 1.442, 1.495 and 1.600 areas are seen. Expect a choppy retrace to the 1.360-1.350 areas. Choppy retraces are typical of bear market rallies and only further reinforce my opinion of the long term direction in the EUR being up while the Dollar will eventually probe new lows. Trade with small positions here and the EUR chart seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU shows these areas now on a sell signal. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
An ABCD technical pattern is seen in the GBP that seems to temper Sterling's strength. The key round numbers past 161 had been bested and now is being tested again. The GBP is now in bullish alignment with the 50 and 200-day moving averages as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, and traders should take a GBP weakness to look for entries to buy longer term.
For the JPY intervention is still in the cards and a daily rising trend-line, be wary of the wash and rinse instead of a fast move in either direction that would normally be expected before the turns but looks to be rolling over longer term. Traders should continue to use caution should the JPY pairs be traded for the time being as seen on the chart given here
http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
On the commodity currency front, the Aussie now at parity is likely to continue to the upside even though it looks extended the fundamentals are supportive and should look on the long side on any pullbacks. The AUD is seen here,
http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD.
This week’s last key report is below but traders should be wary of another annoying G-20 meeting as well as a slew of Bank holidays (US Veteran’s Day, CAD and French Bank holidays) during the Thursday session. The reports are:
1. Fri. Nov. 12, 2010 (2:00am EST) German Preliminary GDP and (9:55am EST) US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment.
There is no swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
Trade with Mr. GREEN for $49$ for a 1 week trial. Don’t miss out on more PIPS!!!
For those who join with this special, the service costs only $179$/month after the trial expires, unless you cancel the membership. Trades are issued in real time, including exact entries, exits and detailed explanations. So go to GreenForexTrading.com now and take advantage of this offer.
Mr. Green
Risk Warning! Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. All information posted on this website is of our opinion and the opinion of our visitors, and may not reflect current situations and occurrences. Please, use your own good judgment and seek advice from a qualified consultant, before believing and accepting and acting upon any information posted here or on this website.
No comments:
Post a Comment