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GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX-tra Gr€€n
Hello Everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Sunday the 14th to Monday the 15th of November 2010 and the week.
For the USDX a trade to the 79 area in the USDX coinciding with the 50-day Moving Average is expected with the daily close-up showing once again how important the 200-day moving average (DMA) is in flagging the next major direction for the dollar with the 80 area also in play, as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD. The EUR pairs were expected to be overall weaker than the corresponding correlated GBP pairs however there still appears to be rotation of relative strength between the two currencies from day to day. A longer-term collapse of the dollar is expected once bearish Dollar sentiment has been corrected and a continuation into a 2-year cycle low is now delayed possibly into spring of 2011. At the moment, risk trades are correcting as stocks, bonds and commodities are sold off on Dollar strength.
After a choppy decline of the EUR/USD to perhaps to the 1.348 area is over the EUR is expected to move higher, possibly to the 1.442, 1.495 and 1.600 areas. The EUR chart seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU shows these areas now on a sell signal. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
An ABCD technical pattern is seen in the GBP that seems to temper Sterling's strength. The key round numbers of the 161 area is a magnet and now is being chopped around with no bias long or short. The GBP is now in bullish alignment with the 50 and 200-day moving averages as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, and traders should take a GBP weakness to look for entries to go long so long as the 50-day moving average holds.
For the JPY intervention is still in the cards and a daily rising trend-line, be wary of the wash and rinse ahead of a fast move in either direction that would normally be expected before the turns but now looks to be rolling over longer term. Traders should continue to use caution trading against the Yen, should any JPY pairs be traded, especially if the 50-day moving average gives way as this could leave some serious Dollar dumping being also on the same side as the BOJ for the time being, as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
On the commodity currency front, the Aussie was at parity after an unexpected rate hike by the central bank but with commodities in corrective mode, for the time being a consolidation is likely before more continuation to the upside to work off an extended condition. Even though it looks extended, the fundamentals are supportive and should look on the long side on any pullbacks. The AUD is seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD.
This week’s is data heavy for reports. The reports are:
1. Mon. Nov. 15, 2010 (9:30am EST) US Retail Sales.
2. Tues. Nov. 16, 2010 (5:30am EST) UK CPI; (6:00am EST) EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment; and (9:30am EST) US PPI.
3. Wed. Nov. 17, 2010 (5:30am) UK Claimant Count Change; and (9:30am EST) US CPI.
4. Thurs. Nov. 18, 2010 (5:30am) UK Retail Sales; and (11:00am EST) US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
3. Fri. Nov. 19, 2010 (1:00am - 11:00am EST) CAD, US and EUR Central Bank Members Speaking.
Reminder: We are still in a very choppy market for US Dollar pairs. Chop is to be expected as the dollar rally is merely a bear market bounce in an otherwise continuing long-term down trend. Adjust position size accordingly.
The swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session is to BUY the EUR/USD @ 1.366-1.367 area with a STOP @ 1.3645 and a TARGET of 1.3784 for 110PIPS.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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