In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for
today, Sunday the 14th of February 2010 and the week.
There will be a few key reports to move the markets this week as
well as some fundamental shifts in sentiment expected to play out
over the next few days if not weeks. The sentiment on the Euro is
nothing short of apocalyptic will all the bullish dollar players
expecting the happy days to continue till nirvana. Seems everyone
forgot the complete bearishness in the dollar no more than 2-3 months
ago when the dollar was expected to be in the dustbin and aside from
precious metals the EU was the only play in town. It is these
extremes in sentiment that we meager souls at GFXtrading hope to
exploit with laser-like precision as half the battle is recognizing
the type of market we are in.
It is our belief that the 2-3 month dollar countertrend rally is on
its last legs, having completed a classic ABC correction in a long
term down trend. As for the GBP and EUR, I am hesitant to call a
bottom here as extremes can always get more extreme, and in some
pairs, one more leg down is not off the table; and since the bounce
that failed last week in dramatic fashion in the late London early
U.S. session of German chancellor, Angela Merkel, announcing
resistance to any swift bailout of Greece, sentiment still has room
to become more extreme. Be forewarned, a tradable bounce is near and
the set-up for a mini-monster trade could soon be in place. The JPY
continues to consolidate and no real changes are expected (for months
maybe) until the inevitable collapse (with Japans debt level some
250% of GDP, is there any doubt of some devaluation in the future).
If you are interested in the fundamental situation of todays
currencies, one needs to look no further than the strength/weakness
and debt of the governments that print them. For a good summary read
on this topic, look here at >>>
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1265958720.php
) the charts speak volumes although it is a bit to apocalyptic for
my taste. The JPY, in the meantime should continue to be a good
anchor for many trades going forward until such time that the JPB
(Japanese long bond) should do its early warning part as the canary
in the coal mine and start to rise with growth still anemic and
foretelling the inevitable. The commodity pairs, AUD, CAD and to a
lesser extent the NZD, are also in a consolidative phases that are
expected to remain for the next few weeks or so before they will
resume showing their respective strengths in the current competitive
currency devaluation environment we are in. In the meantime, we will
wait and trade in an environment where tops will take some time to
complete and respective bottoms will be formed.
This week offers a few reports to trade around but position squaring
is to be watched for as end of the month is soon approaching on this
shortened month giving opportunities for more position trades along
with a scalp trade or two that are still in order in the Trading Room
this week as some breakout trend plays are also forecast.
Again, to repeat, we feel the next two weeks might see some recovery
trades, albeit choppy ones. We will look to re-enter these trades and
some strength or consolidation breakouts, so stay tuned for more
up-dates. I am now running a Trading Room Special of $7 for 7 days!!
Dont miss more PIPS! There are a few reports to move the markets
today and combined with reaction moves should mean greater volatility
than we have seen in the room the past few days. That being said we
still will be wary of spike/gap volatility (chop & slop) and adjust
position size accordingly, and to play any forecast breakout and/or
trend plays.
*There is no swing trade for todays session as thin markets due to
the Chinese New Year and U.S. Presidents Day holiday and the
subsequent erratic volatility created in thin markets would make hard
swing stops meaningless at this point.*
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading
Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4
hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they
arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
*Trade with Mr. GREEN for **$7$/trial for 7 DAYS!!!*
*Trades are issued in real time, including exact entries, exits and
detailed explanations. The service costs $99 per month, and we also
offer a 7-day trial for $39. So go to GreenForexTrading.com and take
advantage of this special offer.*
*Mr. Green*
* *
*Risk Warning!** *Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high
level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past
performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of
leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to
invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your
investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The
possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of
your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money
that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks
associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an
independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. All information
posted on this website is of our opinion and the opinion of our
visitors, and may not reflect current situations and occurrences.
Please, use your own good judgment and seek advice from a qualified
consultant, before believing and accepting and acting upon any
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