GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX forX-tra Gr��n
Hi everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the
Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Sunday the
21st to Monday the 22nd of February 2010 and the week.
The emphasis will be on the USD and to a lesser extent the EUR. What
was written last week still applies &some fundamental shifts in
sentiment expected to play out over the next few days if not weeks.
The sentiment on the Euro is nothing short of apocalyptic will all
the bullish dollar players expecting the happy days to continue till
nirvana. Seems everyone forgot the complete bearishness in the dollar
no more than 2-3 months ago when the dollar was expected to be in the
dustbin and aside from precious metals the EU was the only play in
town. It is these extremes in sentiment that we meager souls at
GFXtrading hope to exploit with laser-like precision as half the
battle is recognizing the type of market we are in. Well that shift
is now upon us as several more pieces have come together to yield
some exciting PIPS moving forward. As explained in the Trading Room,
we were waiting to see what fabrication would come out of the U.S.
CPI report and we were not disappointed with an unbelievable -0.1%
(based on what I do not know, but it really does not matter anyway).
The dollar was relentlessly sold all day from its post induced Fed
announcement high from the � point interest rate increase the day
prior. This has created a bearish candle on the daily USDX chart and
a long-legged doji (indicating indecision..a pre-curser to a
reversal) on the weakly chart which can be seen here&
http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD
. The Euro and British pound also have reversal bars indicating
reversals of extremes in sentiment as seen here&
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU
and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP
.
It is our belief that the 2-3 month dollar countertrend rally is
done. Another nail in the coffin of the dollar is last weeks
Commitment of Traders Reports showing extreme positions which are
always a nice confirmation at major turning points.
*US Dollar Index COT Report - Futures*
*Large Speculators*
*Commercial*
*Total*
*Long*
*Short*
*Spreading*
*Long*
*Short*
*Long*
*Short*
*45,728*
*8,146*
*2,173*
*5,411*
*46,331*
*53,312*
*56,650*
*-35*
*3,372*
*106*
*-157*
*-3,910*
*-86*
*-432*
*Traders*
48
17
5
12
6
64
27
*Small Speculators*
* *
*Long*
*Short*
*Open Interest*
* *
*5,421*
*2,083*
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