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GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX forX-tra Gr€€n
Hi everyone,
In this e-mail I am going to give you my view on the markets for Wednesday the 20th to Thursday the 21st of April 2011.
THE UDSX BROKE 75.5 AND RETESTED AT 75.5, FAILED, AND AS EXPECTED…TANKED, SO STILL CONTINUE TO HOLD AND/OR LOOK FOR LONG ENTRIES IN USD DENOMINATED PAIRS, A SERIOUS DOWNTREND IS ACCELERATING.
From yesterday:
“CONTINUE TO HOLD stop now around 1.429, IF NOT IN (IT WAS CLOSE), LOOK FOR 2ND OR REENTRY AROUND 1.4350, but if 1.442 breaks a straight shot to 1.450 area with an overshoot likely going into this Thursday before volume becomes thin. That’s my call.” <<<Real happy about that one, if I do say so myself.
WELL MY CALL HAS NOT CHANGED AND YOU SHOULD HAVE PIPS AS WE WILL NOW LOOK FOR 1.4700 IN THE EUR/USD AND IF NOT HIT CLOSE BY END U.S. SESSION TOMMORROW.
BUT REMEMBER (he was talking about silver but this could apply to AUD/USD and EUR/USD right now).
“...The rate of ascent could take it there by early next week but at some point, there will be a rush to ring the cash register. Just know that those who want to trade this mad market, had better be prepared for what they are getting themselves into. What makes trading a market of this nature so difficult is attempting to place money management stops or at least mental stops. The extent of the price swings are so huge that stops placed too close to the last trade are prone to be taken out in a price retracement which then quickly ends only to see the uptrend resume leaving the trader sitting on the sidelines watching as he misses the rest of the ride higher. Place a stop too far away from the last price and it could wipe out one's margin before it gets triggered. In other words, attempting to set a risk parameter for the trade if it goes sour becomes almost impossible for all but those with very deep pockets whose accounts are well funded.
- Dan Norcini,
Now a small bounce was expected at 75, it’s over and a collapse to as low as 72 could be fast as the USDX has now RETESTED a broken a zone of weekly support at 75.5-76.5 AND FAILED. A decisive breakdown from a symmetrical pennant below 75.5 with the USDX now at 74.9 and continuation entries into U.S. Dollar denominated longs is recommended for longer term positions. Therefore, look for continuation entries into U.S. Dollar denominated longs on any USDX strength this week for both scalp and longer term positions. Witness a weekly PPO SELL signal with a daily SELL(not going to worry about uptick for now, just aware>>>why we use stops. Enter to go long U.S. Dollar denominated pairs into some retracement zones, as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD.
The EUR is the inverse of the USDX and with the backdrop of a PPO that now has triggered a daily BUY signal against a weekly BUY signal extended from the 50-day moving average, and the bounce here looks to continue after a pullback and now look for some bottom action on lesser time frames to enter and go long. Now look for resistance at 1.45 to be broken and then 1.50 that can be seen in short order, as can be expected on future dollar weakness as seen in the chart here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
We are STILL in an expanding megaphone pattern on the GBP daily. It now looks like 170 will be on the cards first. The GBP has seen some serious choppy swings and a clear pattern has emerged with a megaphone upper trend-line resistance currently at 165 and rising. A new PPO daily BUY against the backdrop of a weekly BUY signal makes cable playable on pullbacks, THIS CHART LOOKS BULLISH. Make cable a long play, as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP.
The JPY was overbought as USD/JPY and a pullback has occurred as expected from these extreme levels although key levels will be defended at all costs with newly printed yen so a nimble sell as below in daily trade can be played although range bound trade near/between the 50 and 200 day moving averages is expected for the time being as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
The AUD ended up catching the “safe-haven” BID and was shaken out of a trade only to see it again making new highs. No other recommendations on AUD yet but still watching for a deeper pullback to 1.025 - 1.03 or more consolidation but if it starts to catch that safe-haven bid, boy it did!!! (watch gold and silver) then enter long as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD.
This week’s activities and reports of consequence are:
1. Thurs. Apr. 21, 2011 - (4:00am EST) EUR German Ifo Business Climate; (4:30am EST) GBP UK Retail Sales; (8:30am EST) CAD Retail Sales US Unemployment Claims and (10:00am EST) US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
3. Fri. Apr. 22, 2011 - Good Friday Bank Holidays for AUD, CAD, NZD, CHF, EU and GBP.
The swing trade for today to tomorrow’s Asian-London-U.S. sessions is to HOLD/BUY the EUR/USD NOW AT @ 1.455 with a STOP @ 1.435 and a TARGET of 1.4700 for 150 PIPS.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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