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GreenForexTrading.com
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Hi everyone,
In this e-mail I am going to give you my view on the markets for Sunday the 17th to Monday the 18th of April 2011 and the week.
THE UDSX BROKE 75.5 AND NOW AT 75, A SERIOUS DOWNTREND IS ACCELERATING.
WEEK AHEAD: With last week’s G-7 and G-20 meetings out of the way the range-bound chop that has been in force last week should give way and not change the US Dollar's technical chart picture that continues to be horrendous and although a small bounce was expected at 75, it seems to be stuck and a collapse to as low as 72 could be fast as the USDX has now broken a zone of weekly support at 75.5-76.5. A decisive breakdown from a symmetrical pennant below 75.5 with the USDX now at 74.9 and continuation entries into U.S. Dollar denominated longs is recommended for longer term positions. Therefore, this week, I will be looking for continuation entries into U.S. Dollar denominated longs on any USDX strength this week for both scalp and longer term positions. Witness a weekly PPO SELL signal with a new daily SELL. Enter to go long U.S. Dollar denominated pairs into some retracement zones, as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD.
The EUR is the inverse of the USDX and with the backdrop of a PPO that now has triggered a daily BUY signal against a weekly BUY signal extended from the 50-day moving average, and the bounce here looks to continue after a pullback and now look for some bottom action on lesser time frames to enter and go long. Now look for resistance at 1.45 to be broken and then 1.50 that can be seen in short order, as can be expected on future dollar weakness as seen in the chart here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
We are in an expanding megaphone pattern on the GBP daily. It now looks like 170 will be on the cards first. The GBP has seen some serious choppy swings and a clear pattern has emerged with a megaphone upper trend-line resistance currently at 165 and rising. A new PPO daily BUY against the backdrop of a weekly BUY signal makes cable playable on pullbacks. Still make cable a cautious long play either way, as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP.
The JPY was overbought as USD/JPY and a pullback has occurred as expected from these extreme levels although key levels will be defended at all costs with newly printed yen so a nimble sell as below in daily trade can be played although rangebound trade between the 50 and 200 day moving averages is expected for the time being as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
The AUD ended up catching the “safe-haven” BID and was shaken out of a trade only to see it again making new highs. No other recommendations on AUD yet but still watching for a deeper pullback to 1.025 - 1.03 to enter long as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD.
This week’s activities and reports of consequence are:
1. Mon. Apr. 18, 2011 - US Fed Banker Speak throughout the day and (9:30pm EST) AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
2. Tues. Apr. 19, 2011 - (3:00am - 4:00am EST) EUR Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI Reports; (7:00am EST) CAD CPI and (8:30am EST) US Building Permits.
3. Wed. Apr. 20, 2011 - (4:30am EST) GBP UK MPC Meeting Minutes and (10:00am EST) US Existing Home Sales.
4. Thurs. Apr. 21, 2011 - (4:00am EST) EUR German Ifo Business Climate; (4:30am EST) GBP UK Retail Sales (8:30am EST) CAD Retail Sales US Unemployment Claims and (10:00am EST) US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
5. Fri. Apr. 22, 2011 - Good Friday Bank Holidays for AUD, CAD, NZD, CHF, EU and GBP.
The swing trade for today to tomorrow’s Asian-London-U.S. sessions is to BUY the EUR/USD @ 1.4378 with a STOP @ 1.4345 and a TARGET of 1.4500 for 120 PIPS.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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