$ £ € ¥
GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX forX-tra Gr€€n
Hi everyone,
In this e-mail I am going to give you my review for the month and week past and view on the market for the month of April, Sunday April 3rd to Monday the 4th of April 2011 and the week ahead.
MARCH 2011 REVIEW: What should be noted from the last month is that for all the recent uncertainty in the marketplace, the U.S. Dollar Index futures did not rally in spite of the perception that the flight to safety should occur as was the case during the last major crisis in 2008 and during recent periods of market uncertainty such as the European sovereign debt crisis, the U.S. Dollar was considered a safe haven and instead the USDX futures stall, chop sell-off and chop some more.
APRIL 2011 FORECAST: This is what is expected as the U.S. Dollar is no longer perceived as a safe haven and those that piled in looking for safety will soon find themselves flat-footed and scrambling for the “door” to unwind those positions when key levels (77 area) gives way. Sentiment is still too complacent on the U.S. Dollar right now with awareness increasing as big players dumping dollars to shake another-wise positive U.S. NFP report. Like Bank of Korea unwinding their U.S. Dollar positions, see below. Bottom line, in order to make those PIPS this month we will be looking for more U.S. Dollar weakness to start the month that should accelerate into a major USDX decline that should be evident by the end of the month.
WEEK AHEAD: The Dollar in chop mode has been stopped again near 76.5 on the USDX with another daily bearish gravestone doji bar. The G7 stepped in to valiantly sell yen when the Japanese currency was threatening to take out all of Wall Street with its hundreds of billions in wrong way carry trades. It seems that last Friday's bizarre sell off in the dollar was due to that particular plan crashing and burning, with Korea defecting from the pact first, and selling its $7 billion in USD acquired in the process of bailing out Japan. It seems it is fair game to buy the Yen once again. With each subsequent bounce becoming smaller and smaller in the USDX, a fast move to 75 is now set to resume followed by a collapse to as low as 72 as the USDX is in a zone of weekly support at 75.5-76.5. Finally, in the broader context, the monthly chart shows that the rising trend line that forms the bottom of a reverse pennant formation is now at 76.7 and a retest of that level looks completed and a decisive breakdown from symmetrical pennant to below 75.5 (USDX now at 75.8) is now expected.
Therefore, due to price action during U.S. NFP release last Friday, I am still looking for continuation entries into U.S. Dollar denominated longs on any USDX strength for both scalp and longer term positions. Witness a weekly PPO SELL signal with a new daily SELL in conflict. So look to scale back until to go long U.S. Dollar denominated pairs on any weakness (USDX strength) into some retracement zones anytime this week, although I expect this USDX rally early this week to weaken as the USDX runs into these retracement zones, as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD.
The EUR is the inverse of the USDX and with the backdrop of a PPO that now has triggered a daily BUY signal against a weekly BUY signal extended from the 50-day moving average, and the bounce here looks to continue and now look for some bottom action on lesser time frames to enter and go long. Now look for 1.419 and we can look for 1.425, 1.45 and 1.50 can be seen in short order, as can be expected on future dollar weakness as seen in the chart here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
We are in an expanding megaphone pattern on the GBP daily. It now looks like 170 will be on the cards first. Holding 160 and the 50-day moving average is next. The GBP has seen some serious choppy swings and a a clear pattern has emerged with a megaphone upper trend-line resistance currently at 165 and rising. A new PPO daily SELL against the backdrop of a weekly BUY signal makes cable choppy as of late. All these cross-currents still make cable a cautious play either way, as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP.
The JPY caught the “safe-haven” BID and intervention is again in the cards and the USD/JPY 80.0 level is where some nimble BUYS can be set as that area will be defended at all costs with newly printed yen. No other recommendations on JPY that can be played as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
The AUD ended up catching the “safe-haven” BID and was shaken out of a trade only to see it again making new highs. No other recommendations on AUD yet but still watching for a pullback to enter as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD.
This week is rate policy and report heavy spread throughout the week with more reports later in the week. They are:
1. Mon. Apr. 4, 2011 - (4:30am EST) GBP UK Construction PMI; (10:30am EST) CAD Business Outlook Survey and (6:00-7:30pm EST) NZD NZIER Business Confidence and US Fed Chair speaks.
2. Tues. Apr. 5, 2011 - (12:30am EST) AUD Cash Rate and RBA Statement; (4:30am EST) UK Services PMI and; (10:00am) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and (2:00pm EST) US FOMC Meeting Minutes.
3. Wed. Apr. 6, 2011 - (4:30am EST) GBP UK Manufacturing Production; (10:00am EST) CAD Ivey PMI and (9:30pm EST) AUD Employment Change/Unemployment Rate.
4. Thurs. Apr. 7, 2011 - (7:00am EST) UK Official Bank Rate; (7:45am EST) EUR Minimum Bid Rate decision; (8:30am EST) US Unemployment Claims and CAD Building Permits.
5. Fri. Apr. 8, 2011 - (4:30am) GBP UK PPI Input and (7:00am EST) CAD Employment Change/Unemployment Rate.
The swing trade for this week’s Asian-London-U.S. sessions is to BUY the EUR/USD @ 1.4191 with a STOP @ 1.4174 and TARGETS of 1.4250 and 1.4340 for 60 to 140 PIPS.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
Trade with Mr. GREEN for $49$ for a 1 week trial. Don’t miss out on more PIPS!!!
For those who join with this special, the service costs only $179$/month after the trial expires, unless you cancel the membership. Trades are issued in real time, including exact entries, exits and detailed explanations. The service costs $179 per month. So go to GreenForexTrading.com now and take advantage of this offer.
Mr. Green
Risk Warning! Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. All information posted on this website is of our opinion and the opinion of our visitors, and may not reflect current situations and occurrences. Please, use your own good judgment and seek advice from a qualified consultant, before believing and accepting and acting upon any information posted here or on this website.
No comments:
Post a Comment