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GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX forX-tra Gr€€n
Hi everyone,
In this e-mail I am going to give you my view on the markets for Tuesday the 17th to Wednesday the 18th of May 2011.
The Dollar now at 75.3 with the possibility of more U.S. Dollar strength is possible given concerns about the EU late last week. Expect chop on the back of whether more U.S. Dollar printing continues after QEII is set to end in June and will it or will not the money printing continue under a new QEIII. Even money at this point for further retrace to the 77-78 area as it is very possible just as it is possible and is more likely as the USDX has rested above the 50-day moving average. I still believe that will be followed by a collapse to as low as 72 and 70 and 67. Finally, in the broader context, the monthly chart shows that the rising trend line that is now broken while the weekly down trendline has been broken to the upside and so far a mixed picture for longer term position trades. Witness a new weekly PPO SELL signal against a daily SELL and are currently flat, as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD.
The EUR is the inverse of the USDX and with the backdrop of a PPO on a daily SELL signal against a new weekly SELL signal cutting through the 50-day moving average, and the bounce here looks less likely as a move to the 1.385 level in EUR/USD with resistance at 1.45 and 1.50 as seen in the chart here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
We are STILL in an expanding megaphone pattern on the GBP daily attempting to break out to get to 170 and failed. New entries are possible but caution is advised as a new PPO daily SELL muddies the picture against the backdrop of a new weekly SELL signal while still in bullish alignment, makes cable playable on both sides but LONGER TERM THIS CHART STILL LOOKS BULLISH (unless the 200-day M.A. gives way below 159). Make cable a long play on shallow pullbacks with defined stops, as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP.
The JPY was overbought as USD/JPY and a pullback has occurred as expected from these extreme levels to create another run in the opposite for another set of extreme levels which will be defended at all costs with newly printed yen from the BOJ and so a nimble sell (BUY for USD/JPY in the 80.0 area) as below in daily trade can be played as a return trade to near/between the 50 and 200 day moving averages is expected for the time being as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
The AUD looks like a bounce play here but keep it brief. Another daily PPO SELL on a new weekly PPO SELL with more weakness possible but is really expected to consolidate here before the next move higher now that the 1.05 gap has been now filled and more consolidation before it moves to possible 1.13 - 1.15 on a safe-haven/interest rate differential bid as a long entry as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD.
This weeks tradeable/impacting reports and events are light and spread throughout the week. They are:
1. Wed. May 18, 2011 - (4:30am EST) GBP UK Claimant Count Change and MPC Meeting Minutest and (2:00pm EST) US FOMC Meeting Minutes.
2. Thurs. May 19, 2011 - (4:30am EST) UK Retail Sales; (8:30am EST) US Unemployment Claims and (10:00am EST) US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales.
3. Fri. May 20, 2011 - (7:00am EST) CAD CPI and (8:30am EST) CAD Retail Sales.
The swing trade for next two day Asian-London-U.S. sessions is to BUY the EUR/USD @ 1.4245 with a STOP @ 1.4224 and a TARGET of 1.4388 for 140 PIPS.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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