Hello Clay.Shashi here,Yes count me in..............HARIOM
________________________________
From: Clay <cwmara@yahoo.com>
To: 4XONTARIO@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sun, May 15, 2011 3:58:43 PM
Subject: Re: [4XONTARIO] euro
Hi Mary,
In my experience (I've used EW since 2001), only about 60% of it is useful; the
rest is far too esoteric for most people and not applicable for trading,
especially intra-day. I'm considering doing a free webinar on reading momentum
using MACD, including how I use this indicator to count Elliott waves, sometime
this month or early next, for anyone who might be interested.
Great trading,
Clay
--- On Sun, 5/15/11, Mary <mmburton02@aol.com> wrote:
From: Mary <mmburton02@aol.com>
Subject: Re: [4XONTARIO] euro
To: 4XONTARIO@yahoogroups.com
Date: Sunday, May 15, 2011, 6:09 PM
I have a friend she took Elliot Wave too soon,she just gave up trading. Mary
-----Original Message-----
From: Mary <mmburton02@aol.com>
To: 4XONTARIO <4XONTARIO@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sun, May 15, 2011 4:24 pm
Subject: Re: [4XONTARIO] euro
Thank you Peter,you are so right.Your explanation was great and a lot of work so
thank again.Mary
-----Original Message-----
From: Peter McIntyre <mcpetetrader@yahoo.com>
To: 4XONTARIO <4XONTARIO@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sat, May 14, 2011 9:35 am
Subject: Re: [4XONTARIO] euro
Mary,
Your question has a simple answer but for this trader a very long explanation.
Sorry.
Technically the EurUsd reached "a" top on its daily chart. The EurUsd found a
top and "dropped" as it goes. To the uninformed trader this might be somewhat
frightening after experiencing such a long trending move up. The trick for this
trader is in finding the correct path to the understanding price and wave
theory. Also knowing that when price trends there eventually needs to be a
rebalancing period in which the market returns to stable position. The drop of
the EurUsd was foretold in several signals. Let me explain…
First, in the following example (the daily price chart included) we see how
price moved to a median line on an Andrews Fork (this happens 50% of the time.)
An understanding of fork theory helps. The chart also includes a MACd oscillator
simply to show the very obvious divergences talked about later.
Secondly, understanding price structure and wave theory is most helpful. Have
you ever wondered why during a price move or trend, how price retraces to some
greater degrees than others? How about, "why does price move a greater distance
sometimes and not so other times?"
Well, this trader has looked at a lot of trading styles and has come to the
conclusion that most methods are simply trying to "pinch some pips" on a
familiar constant signal. The risk /reward ratio at which this is done is only
measured by the individual trader. I like many have experienced many different
methods of trading.
My experience has not been unlike others on this board as I have bounced as many
different ways as the markets. Sacrificing many hours, days, weeks, years in
just getting educated in what I consider a most wonderful journey, I finally
came to the conclusion that the markets are not random but had some order.
One day while processing a simple question like, "What happened to the
EurUsd..?" A vision stuck in my head of some price patterns and why did some
have some order and others a much larger retrace pattern. Rather than
reinventing the wheel I remembered a theory about a guy who perhaps had similar
questions to mine. (Maybe not!)
I remember having trading friends saying you need to look at this theory. You
have to understand Mary, that I am a quick learner and looking at Elliot Wave
five to seven years ago was way too complicated. I really believe it was my
brain telling me I was not ready and did not have the back ground to attack such
a difficult subject without some "street" experience. So the years passed and I
have progressively fine tuned what works for me. Then that question came, "What
the heck is the EurUsd doing>>>?"
I then remembered the story I read about a guy who in the 1920's and 1930's,
chronically ill with Chaga's disease and away from his accounting work,
developed a price wave theory. Astoundingly not even being a trader but just a
very good accountant.
I dove back into Elliot Wave. So, not such a random market but a market that is
has its own language. While I have spent a lot of time in different theories and
grasping, "what is next?" question at every turn, I picked up a book purchased
years before and began my journey into information that I thought would explain
the answers to the very simple questions that took so long to germinate. By not
forcing the information at an early stage of learning I personally save myself
from a whole lot of frustration and struggling. A great analogy is to pick up a
fine piece if literature written in a language you do not understand and having
to look up ever word and then trying to figure out sentence structure.
I lived the days, weeks and years into the position where time brought Elliot
wave back to me. Now let me make this clear. I am not an expert in Elliot Wave
Theory and I do not personally know anyone who is. What I do know is that order
has been brought into the universe for this trader. So…
…the daily EurUsd chart is labeled with a top of the wave 3, the bottom of the
4th wave and finally the top of wave 5. Using an oscillator or "other" indicator
one is able to pick up divergences and see the turn in the impulse waves of
Elliot.(see MACd used on this chart.) One reason I had not used Elliot Wave
Theory previously as the identification of wave placement or approximation were
anyone's guess. Even with Elliot's rules it was always a crap shoot. So getting
help was in order. Some use MACd and others Stochcastic, RSI, etc or a
combination of the above to identify waves. With waves there come rules. Knowing
what is supposed to fit where is very helpful, but that is intuitive. The rules
are on the net or in the books. One simple rule that made it easy to identify
wave 3 was the abc retracement to wave 4 that MUST take place. This is why wave
3 extends so far many times. Also look for the oscillator to be above that
purple line in the
case of the euro….and on and on…
So simply, the impulse, motive or trending wave is composed of 5 waves and the
top is of course number 5. If you look at your daily chart you will see the
divergence that is very clear at the top of wave 5. (See the large white uneven
rectangle. The lower signal is at the top of wave 3. Place your oscillator, etc
to visually see the divergence. Most folks look for the divergence in the
approximation of the current price structure. A big mistake as this could be
terminal for a great trade as price eventually continues with the trend.
Multiple divergences are keys to understanding where price approximates the wave
pattern.
Now a savvy trader needs to understand that when price trends; price will
eventually need to rebalance. When price is getting close to a top or bottom the
divergence's starts to creep in. Now in the turns where you do not see
divergence price is simply snaking along its way following the rules of human
behavior.
Knowing that this is getting lengthy I will attempt to end this by telling you
that I am looking for and abc pattern off the top of this euro. We have not
reached the bottom of the a wave yet. The b wave would be lower than the high at
5 and then the c wave would terminate below the bottom of the a wave. Look for
the signal the oscillator gives when the c waves terminates. The other
possibility is for the 5th wave is to extend. The monthly chart calls for higher
highs in price. This is a long time off…or is it? My current target short is the
lower median line parallel at 1.3995. Adjustments will come with the live
market.
Ok Mary…off to the rest of my weekend. Hope this is not to confusing…
Peter
--- On Fri, 5/13/11, Mary <mmburton02@aol.com> wrote:
From: Mary <mmburton02@aol.com>
Subject: [4XONTARIO] euro
To: 4XONTARIO@yahoogroups.com
Date: Friday, May 13, 2011, 11:22 AM
What in the world is going on with the euro? Mary
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