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Hi everyone,
In this e-mail I am going to give you my view on the market for Tuesday the 3rd to Wednesday the 4th of May 2011.
The Dollar stalled at 73.0 on the USDX with small bounces and each subsequent bounce becoming smaller and smaller, although I believe we are due for a rather strong bounce soon to scramble shorts, so nothing is a gift here and current longs should be managed with new entries on defined zones as a fast move to the 74-75 area is possible here followed by a collapse to as low as 72 and 70 and 67 from any strong bounce. Finally, in the broader context, the monthly chart shows that the rising trend line that is now broken. Witness a weekly PPO SELL signal with a daily SELL getting extended >>> why we use stops. Enter to go long U.S. Dollar denominated pairs into some retracement zones, as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD.
The EUR is the inverse of the USDX and with the backdrop of a PPO that now has triggered a daily BUY signal against a weekly BUY signal extended from the 50-day moving average, and the bounce here looks to continue after a pullback and now look for some bottom action on lesser time frames to enter and go long. Now look for support to go long EUR/USD with support at 1.45 and 1.50 that can be seen in short order, as can be expected on continued future dollar weakness as seen in the chart here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
We are STILL in an expanding megaphone pattern on the GBP daily attempting to break out to get to 170. Good for some nice PIPS last week and has now fallen to the 165 area that should allow new entries. A new PPO daily BUY against the backdrop of a new weekly BUY signal makes cable playable on these pullbacks, and LONGER TERM THIS CHART LOOKS BULLISH. Make cable a long play on shallow pullbacks, as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP.
The JPY was overbought as USD/JPY and a pullback has occurred as expected from these extreme levels to create another run in the opposite for another set of extreme levels which will be defended at all costs with newly printed yen from the BOJ and so a nimble sell(BUY for USD/JPY in the 80.0 area) as below in daily trade can be played as a trade near/between the 50 and 200 day moving averages is expected for the time being as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
The AUD ended up catching the “safe-haven” BID and was shaken out of a trade only to see it again making new highs. No other recommendations on AUD yet but still watching for a deeper pullback to 1.075 (DAILY TRADE) and maybe even 1.05 to fill the gap or more consolidation before it moves to possible 1.13 - 1.15 on a safe-haven bid as a long entry as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XAD.
This week is rate policy and report heavy spread throughout the week with more reports later in the week. They are:
1. Wed. May 4, 2011 - (2:00am EST) GBP UK Nationwide HPI; (4:30am EST) GBP UK Construction PMI; (8:15am EST) US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; (10:00am EST) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; and (6:45pm EST) NZD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.
2. Thurs. May 5, 2011 - (4:30am EST) UK GBP Services PMI; (7:00am EST) UK Official Bank Rate; (7:45am EST) EUR Minimum Bid Rate decision; (8:30am EST) ECB Press Conference, US Unemployment Claims and CAD Building Permits; and (10:00am EST) CAD Ivey PMI.
3. Fri. May 6, 2011 - (4:30am) GBP UK PPI Input; (7:00am EST) CAD Employment Change/Unemployment Rate; and (8:30am EST) US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.
The swing trade for today’s Asian-London session is to SELL the AUD/USD @ 1.0844 with a STOP @ 1.0874 and a TARGET of 1.0750 for 120 PIPS.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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