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Hello Everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Tuesday the 29th to Wednesday the 30th of June 2010.
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The chop is over! The last newsletter (June 29-30), “…(choppy) trading environments usually presage a new direction or upcoming powerful move and so the markets will try to shake as many players out before the real big move comes, whatever that may be…with a chop in this range for some time that could knife through it later this week with key manufacturing and employment reports due.” The USD’s closed under our key pivot of 85.0 after a very weak bounce is now near the bottom of the range near 84.5, as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD. The all sell the USD signal is now in force. A small retrace to test prior support now turned resistance in the 85.0 area is possible but a real collapse is expected if not today then going into next week. At the moment as stocks are unloaded globally and low interest rate currencies such as the USD and JPY are be repatriated but that appears to be over for the time being. A low risk entry, perhaps at the top of the range at 85.0-85.5 area is worthy of looking at. Either way, volatility gets another boost and we should continue to initiate core positions on any USD strength to play its eventual weakness.
In terms of technical considerations in the EUR/USD, two potentially bullish situations are taking place. From a weekly long term standpoint, the main trend is down, but the currency was able to pierce through a retracement zone at 1.2164 and now above the 1.233 area. The main intermediate term trend is now up and a move to and through the 1.245 – 1.246 pivot area has occurred and the intermediate trend reasserts itself and the continuation of a 2 - 3 week rally with the 1.278 region as the next potential upside target area is now in play. The U.S. data continues to be abysmal from a strong currency standpoint. The prior EUR/USD 1.1876 – 1.232 range is still support. In summary, the weekly chart is set up for a strong retracement rally to 1.2784, with the Euro holding a test of a minor interim retracement levels so far. The topping action in the USD can also be confirmed against the bottoming action in the EUR as mirror images of each other and the EUR chart can be seen here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. We will play both ways with no bias for now; anticipating trades back to defined retracement levels. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
The JPY broke above the 200-day moving average; after bouncing hard at the lower 50-day moving average and went ballistic being the anti-dollar but now look for a reversal here and the USD-JPY correlation to reassert itself and look for JPY weakness from this point to back to the 200-day MA. as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY. The GBP as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, is accelerating after clearing its 50-day MA which also coincides with the 50% retracement of the prior April-May decline. The solid break above the 148.1 area set up the GBP for a quick pop to the 151.5 level and continues to be expected to move to the 155 area in short order.
The big one (US employment report) is given tomorrow and a factor in today’s swing trade. The break of the critical 85 area with potential fireworks has not been understated here for those that check their in-box. A fast break move (now a continuation) is possible and traders should have been aware of this level this week.
The swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session is to BUY the EUR/USD in the 1.246 - 1.248 area with a loose STOP in the 1.243 area and a TARGET of 1.278 for 300 PIPS.
NOTE: If not filled, it is recommended to enter as a longer term position trade with a smaller position size and looser stop is recommended as this will be described more as a “Monster Trade” in the Monthly Newsletter this weekend.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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Risk Warning! Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. All information posted on this website is of our opinion and the opinion of our visitors, and may not reflect current situations and occurrences. Please, use your own good judgment and seek advice from a qualified consultant, before believing and accepting and acting upon any information posted here or on this website.
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