Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Daily Trade for July 27-28, 2010

$ £ € ¥

GreenForexTrading.com

ForeX-tra Gr€€n

 

Hello Everyone,

 

          In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Tuesday the 27th to Wednesday the 28th of July 2010.

          The USD short term bottom near key support and weekly 50% retrace, as seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD.  is close to failure.  A new all sell the USD signal is could soon be in effect as key weekly support and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels in the 81.5-82.2 area are challenged and as expected extra chop as directional bias will be confirmed after everyone is shaken out…this is the expected routine and smaller position sizes are to be used until the bias is confirmed.  If a solid bottom reforms, then look for a retrace to minimum 84.5 area with a retrace to test prior support now turned resistance in the 85.0 area also corresponding to the 0.382 Fibonacci retrace level of the 88.7 to 82.1 decline.  Expect a real collapse if the 82.1 level does not hold.  Again, expect some chop in these areas before the next trend is confirmed and we will look to reestablish core positions in the new “Monster Trade” to continue to initiate core positions on any USD strength to play its eventual weakness.

          In terms of technical considerations in the EUR/USD, the bullish situation continues.  The main intermediate term trend is still up and another rally that should take out the 1.300 level for good is expected this week.  This level offered some scant resistance before moving to the areas defined in the “Monster Trade”.  The topping action in the USD can also be confirmed against the bottoming action in the EUR as mirror images of each other and the EUR chart can be seen here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU.  We will play both ways with no bias for now; anticipating trades back to defined retracement levels.  Place your trades accordingly.  All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.

          The JPY broke above the 200-day moving average; after bouncing hard at the lower 50-day moving average and went ballistic being the anti-dollar but merely retraced and went ballistic and now look for consolidation with a short term neutral bias as the 50-day/200-day M.A. bullish cross area catches up to garner support for the JPY, as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.

The GBP as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, is accelerating after clearing its 50-day MA which also coincides with the 50% retracement of the prior April-May decline and is now challenging the 200-day MA. 

Expect this level to be bested as the expectation is for a much better outlook for UK given the strong recent GDP readings.  This may very well be the best quarter "for some time" from UK; however, GDP is released quarterly, and with two more releases out of UK for the 2nd quarter, the focus will be on the optimism after which the next prelim. GDP release will be in October for the 3rd quarter.  So, from now until then there is pretty much enough time to see GBP soar against USD.  Expect to see the GBP/USD between the 1.62 and 1.70 level in the next few months, as both negative outlooks in U.S. and the rest Europe should push demand higher.  This rational in the GBP pairs will be the basis for another “Monster Trade” initiation, see below.


          Looking elsewhere at the market, after seeing excessive gains in commodity currencies, and unless there is further news to support this sentiment, expect some pullbacks on AUD, NZD, and CAD this week from a purely statistical point of view.  Short term trend change is the news of the drop in CPI or inflationary pressure in Australia with a reading of 0.5% vs. 0.8% expected.


The key report to trade off today is the NZ RBNZ Cash rate decision.

Chop is expected and scalp trades might be preferred as sentiment/reaction is gauged.  A fast break move (now a continuation) is possible in the USD but traders should be aware of key daily and weekly retracement levels, especially given the thin summer trade

         

The “Monster Trade” initiation.  With GBP sentiment catch-up expected and the USD flirting with recent new lows while a key 0.382 retrace earlier last week did not occur leads to this trade.  I recommend scale in BUYS (0.1 contract at a time) on weakness in the GBP/USD, now in the 1.5450 to 1.5550 range with looser stops than usual, around 1.5400 (so explains the very small position size).  The target areas are the longer term weekly retracements in the 1.6200 to 1.7000 areas.  NOTE: All position trade stops are HARD stops, NOT mental stops.  Remember, hard stops for overnight positions, mental stops for day trades.

About Scaling In

Scaling in simply means breaking up the initial entry position into multiple parts and deploying them at selected intervals, instead of firing the entire trade magazine all at once.  The only reason we might resort to scaling is if we have good reason to believe our expected support zone may have become obsolete.

We usually take an initial position in our expected support zone with a fairly tight stop. Obviously if we get stopped, we were early to the trade. Early is just another word for “wrong.”  If stopped, we reassess and adapt to the new market reality.  If we were not early, and our position shows us that we are right, then we add to that position once the trade has managed to “prove” itself by advancing out of the support zone box, raising our trailing/trading stop in the process.  The two or more portions make up a full position.  When we speak of scaling, it means we have become willing to break up the trade entry into two or more parts, with the first part at the very top of the expected support box and the second part within it.  Rarely will we ever take a new position outside our expected support box.

 

The swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session is to SELL the GBP/JPY in the 137.2 area with a STOP @ 137.55 and a TARGET of 136.18 for 100 PIPS.

 

That's it for today.  Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time.  I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.

   

Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!

For those who join with this special, the service costs only $99$/month after the trial expires, unless you cancel the membership.  JOIN NOW.  Extended another week…after July 30th, the monthly service will cost $179.

Trade with Mr. GREEN for $39$ for a 1week trial; $49 AFTER July 30th.

 

Trades are issued in real time, including exact entries, exits and detailed explanations.  After the trial period the service costs only $99 per month until July 30th. So go to GreenForexTrading.com and take advantage of this special offer.

 

Mr. Green

 

Risk Warning! Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. All information posted on this website is of our opinion and the opinion of our visitors, and may not reflect current situations and occurrences. Please, use your own good judgment and seek advice from a qualified consultant, before believing and accepting and acting upon any information posted here or on this website.



--
If you do not want to receive any more newsletters, this link

To update your preferences and to unsubscribe visit this link
Forward a Message to Someone this link

Powered by PHPlist2.10.10, &copy tincan ltd

No comments:

Post a Comment