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GreenForexTrading.com
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Hello Everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Sunday the 13th to Monday the 14th of June 2010 and the week.
There was no swing trade for last Friday’s Asian-London session due to expected chop in a trading range environment.
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We are still in a surprise news events environment and being on the right side of a trade is as important as ever as well as to avoid the chop, i.e., trades that can be account killers. This is best summed up to quote Jim Sinclair, “One day all is well with the world and the worst is behind us; the next day ‘sentiment’ suddenly reverses and the world is coming to an abrupt end. What once took 6 months to a year to sort out now occurs overnight. Navigating this madness from an investment standpoint or even a trading vantage can produce serious cases of whiplash as this near bipolar change from moment to moment is here to stay.” That same shift in investor psychology for the day took the pressure off of the Euro and encouraged selling in the US Dollar.
Last week the USDX had a weekly breakout close of 88.3 and it looks like the breakout failed with the expected pullback to the breakout point of 87.4 being undercut to last Friday’s close of 87.33. The potential game changer, the USDX breaking the 87.4 support level as seen in the USDX daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD. Another advance is no longer predicted if we get a weekly close below 87.0 as this would qualify as a drop back in the range (aka, failed breakout) and the rising lower bottoms trendline would be violated; and since wedges tend to be terminal patterns longer term, the reversal would be expected to stick. Caution is still warranted until the drop back into range is confirmed by the weekly close. Either way, volatility gets another boost.
The action in the USDX can also be confirmed as bottoming action as seen in the EUR chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. The retest of the 1.217 level while unlikely last week, given recent weakness now looks probable with EUR sentiment still so bearish. The PPO gave a buy signal after showing divergence on the daily against a lower low in the EUR. We will play both ways with a bias now to buy anticipating trades back up into prior ranges. Place your bets accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
The JPY continued its roll over at its current stall and stop at the 200-day moving average after it bounced hard at the lower 50-day moving average and is in a rather large range between these two averages, as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY. The GBP as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, looked to have a solid bottom in place with the creation of a higher high at 147.2 (a key level discussed earlier) and is still showing greater relative strength as compared to the EUR and looks to grind higher in the short term. The GBP will be used as the primary proxy for any buys that may be seen near term.
There will be some reports of significance to trade through this week including US and UK CPI among others. Now with the picture clearer still in terms of the USDX and EUR related pairs, we will play some retracements and better continuations. Either way, we are making pips.
There is no swing trade for today’s Asian-London session.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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