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GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX-tra Gr€€n
Hello Everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Wednesday the 11th to Thursday the 12th of August 2010.
The swing trade for yesterday’s Asian-London Session to SELL the EUR/USD in the 1.323-1.327 area did not fill unless you happened to get the newsletter early. We in the Live Trading Room made an entry adjustment to get in at 1.3115 before it quickly collapsed and depending how the trade was managed yielded over 100 PIPS and if held on could have yielded a lot more.
The U.S. Dollar exploded higher as the dollar soared higher versus the euro, but the dollar also fell to a new 15 year low versus the yen as its case as the best safe haven fiat currency seems to be asserted. So now we have our confirmation of a reversal that would indicate a more intermediate term bottoming has formed here and a strong reversal bodes for some more short term upside to take place before the next leg down continues. USD short term moves are now expected to the upside with 83.4 being the next key resistance, coinciding with the 38.2% retrace of the last 88.71 to 80.08 multi-week decline. This can be seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD. At this point you probably want to keep it light and place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
The declining action in the USD can also be confirmed against the advancing action in the EUR as mirror images of each other and the EUR chart can be seen here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. It is interesting to note on a relative strength basis that the EUR advance has occurred mostly on a decline of the dollar as a weighting of currencies is examined and can be shown by comparing the fact that the EUR still had some way to go before reaching its 200-day M.A. while the USD has already broken through its 200-day moving average before reversing and is now headed for the 50-day M.A. and a key 1.278 level for the EUR/USD. This expressed weakness in the EUR was to be the basis for another “Monster Trade” initiation in the future, but with the degree of the move that just occurred this trade will be scratched as no opportunity for scaling-in was allowed time wise except for maybe some lucky subscribers who heeded the call last week in the Live Forex Trading Room.
The JPY broke above the 200-day moving average; after bouncing hard at the lower 50-day moving average and is still being the anti-dollar by continuing to the upside. This trade is still hard to catch as no pullbacks have afforded us better entries and is the main reason this pair has been avoided as of late as possible trades in the Live Trading Room, as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
GBP as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, is extended above the 50 & 200-day moving averages. I am staying away from GBP as the fundamental outlook shows more gain for this currency. The GBP did drop, as part of this major USD reversal, and as expected has shown greater relative strength as compared to the EUR but it will probably be the currency of choice when the USD reverses in the future to its primary downtrend.
The main report that will factor in today’s trade is the AU Employment Change at 9:30pm EST). Chop is always possible and scalp trades might be preferred as sentiment/reaction is gauged. A fast break move (now a continuation) is possible in the USD but traders should be aware of key daily and weekly retracement levels, especially given the thin summer trade.
There is no swing trade for today’s Asian-London Session.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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