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GreenForexTrading.com
ForeX-tra Gr€€n
Hello Everyone,
In this email I am going to give you my view on the market for the Asian/London sessions in the market for today, spanning Monday the 23rd to Tuesday the 24th of August 2010.
The swing trade for yesterday’s Asian-London-U.S. session to BUY the EUR/USD in the 1.271-1.272 area was stopped out and the 1.2684 area was taken out as a continuation move to 1.2606 is expected and those in the Live Forex Trading Room were redirected to SELL and are currently holding for more PIPS.
For those subscribers in the Live Forex Trading Room, audio broadcasts are now given for detailed rational and description/expectations for the day’s trading. Just right-click on Mr. Green’s name icon (with the microphone) and click the “Listen To This Users Voice Chat Broadcast” tab. It will start at 1:30 AM EST, technology willing. Note: So far it seems Firefox works best instead of Internet Explorere; something to keep in consideration when logging in.
We are still looking at short term continuation buying in the USD into the 84-85 area were we will look to scale in positions for another reversal heading into September. The key support/resistance and weekly retrace levels in the USDX are 83.38, 84.4 and 85.4 (38.2%, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retraces of the prior 88.71-80.08 decline), and the 83.4 resistance level is in play coinciding with the 50-day moving average. The start of another leg-up in the USD looks possible taking it through the 83.4 as consolidations (the 82-83 range in the USDX) often appear in the middle of the move where a quick move to the 84-85 area is now expected. In addition, the USDX has broken out of the declining trend channel (from the June 7th high of 88.71 to the August 5th low of 80.08). This can be seen in the USD daily and weekly chart here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD. Place your trades accordingly. All charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
The advancing action in the USD can also be confirmed against the declining action in the EUR as mirror images of each other and the EUR has started another leg down, undercutting the 50-day moving average and now look to the 124 to 126 area as the next targets. The EUR chart can be seen here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XEU. It is interesting to note on a relative strength basis that just like the prior EUR advance that has occurred mostly on a decline of the dollar (as a weighting of currencies is examined and can be shown by comparing the fact that the EUR still did not reached its 200-day M.A. before reversing while the USD had tested its 200-day moving average), the EUR broke its 50-day M.A. to the downside while the USD has yet to break through its 50-day M.A. This expressed weakness in the EUR will be the basis for another “Monster Trade” initiation in the future.
The JPY broke above the 200-day moving average; after bouncing hard at the lower 50-day moving average and went ballistic for a while being the anti-dollar and now looks to be in a consolidation with a long bias as the 50-day/200-day M.A. are now aligned and are now confirming an uptrend, as seen on the chart given here http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY.
The GBP is still hanging on the 200/50 day moving average cliff, as seen here, http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP, and the expected bounce is looking less likely given thin summer trade and the developing strength of the USD and weakness of the EUR. The fundamental outlook still shows more gain for this currency. But with current USD strength, timing becomes important and remains probably the most resilient currency against USD, and now a move to the 153 area is now expected in the short term.
There are some reports that I note this week that could factor in some trading sessions going forward. They are:
1. Mon. Aug. 23, 2010 (11:00pm EST) NZD Inflation Expectations.
2. Tues. Aug. 24, 2010 (8:30am EST) CAD Core Retail Sales.
3. Wed. Aug. 25, 2010 (8:30am EST) US Durable Goods Orders.
4. Thurs. Aug. 26, 2010 (8:30am EST) US Unemployment Claims.
5. Fri. Aug. 27, 2010 (4:30am EST) UK revised GDP.
Traders should be aware of key daily and weekly retracement levels, especially given the thin summer trade.
The “Monster Trade” initiation. Waiting for the EUR/USD to top out for a rebound as we will gauge sentiment as the USD flirts with recent retrace and key levels so look for this in upcoming newsletters of what we will scale into. Live Trading Room members will get first crack at these entries with more precise defined levels to minimize risk.
The swing trade for today’s Asian-London-U.S. session is to BUY the EUR/USD in the 1.2600-1.2610 area with a STOP @ 1.2574 and a TARGET of 1.2678 for 70 PIPS.
That's it for today. Remember that I trade in the Live Forex Trading Room between 1am-6am Eastern Time. I will be hosting my regular 3-4 hour session and assessing and exploiting PIP opportunities as they arise.
Enjoy trading and good luck everyone!
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